Forecasting with a Furry Prophet: How Accurate Are The Groundhog's Predictions?

If Punxsutawney Phil see's his shadow this year, as the legend goes, that means six more weeks of winter weather lay ahead; no shadow indicates an early spring.

When is Groundhog Day?

Groundhog Day is on February 2nd every year. This year, Groundhog Day will be on a Monday.

So, how accurate has Punxsutawney Phil been at predicting an early Spring?

Punxsutawney Phil has been issuing his weather “predictions” since 1887, but his track record is far from reliable.

• Scientific analyses comparing Phil’s forecasts to actual weather show his overall historical accuracy is about 39%.

• In more recent years, the accuracy sometimes dips closer to 30%
  

This information has been adapted from www.livescience.com.